{
  "ffai_version": "4.0",
  "generated": "2026-10-07T01:32:20Z",
  "name": "Farmers First Ag Index v4",
  "description": "National ratio of prices farms receive to prices farms pay (USDA NASS indexes, 2011 = 100), scored as a percentile of the 1995-2019 quarters.",
  "ratios": {
    "all": "COMMODITY TOTALS received / PPITW paid (matches USDA's published ratio within about one point)",
    "crops": "CROP TOTALS received / CROP SECTOR paid",
    "livestock": "LIVESTOCK TOTALS received / ANIMAL SECTOR paid",
    "dairy": "DAIRY PRODUCT TOTALS received / ANIMAL SECTOR paid (the animal-sector cost index includes feeder cattle and replacement cows bought)"
  },
  "score": "share of 1995-2019 quarters at or below this quarter's ratio, 0-100",
  "base_period": "1995-2019",
  "quarter_rule": "average of 3 months; a quarter is published only when all 3 months of both sides are out",
  "validation": {
    "preregistered_in": "engine/ffai_v4.py (git commit 163cc4b, before the first validation run)",
    "target": "year-over-year change in USDA net farm income (FRED B1448C1A027NBEA) deflated by CPI",
    "method_used": "A",
    "results": {
      "A": {
        "T1": {
          "r": 0.75,
          "n_years": 30,
          "eff_n": 29.3,
          "p_one_sided": "<0.001",
          "target": "real net farm income"
        },
        "T2": {
          "r": 0.84,
          "n_years": 30,
          "eff_n": 29.8,
          "p_one_sided": "<0.001",
          "target": "real market income (NFI minus federal ag subsidies)"
        },
        "T3": {
          "rmse_model": 0.173,
          "rmse_no_change": 0.221,
          "rmse_last_year": 0.32,
          "test_years": 20
        }
      },
      "B": {
        "T1": {
          "r": 0.7,
          "n_years": 20,
          "eff_n": 19.6,
          "p_one_sided": "<0.001",
          "target": "real net farm income"
        },
        "T2": {
          "r": 0.78,
          "n_years": 20,
          "eff_n": 19.7,
          "p_one_sided": "<0.001",
          "target": "real market income (NFI minus federal ag subsidies)"
        },
        "T3": {
          "rmse_model": 0.135,
          "rmse_no_change": 0.202,
          "rmse_last_year": 0.252,
          "test_years": 10
        }
      }
    },
    "validated": true,
    "scope": "year-over-year changes in the all-farms ratio; the 0-100 score level and the sector scores were not tested",
    "same_year_only": "the relationship is within the same year; it is not a forecast",
    "headline_lock": "A and B both passed 3/3; by the pre-registered tie rule A was chosen, and the engine was then set to keep A (HEADLINE_METHOD) so a later run cannot switch it",
    "note": "the latest year of net farm income is a USDA forecast and can be revised",
    "not_claimed": "no relationship with national farm loan delinquency (r about 0)"
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Prices only: yields, volumes and government payments are not in the ratio.",
    "The ratio declined about 1.2 points a year over 1995-2019, consistent with rising yields; scores against 1995-2019 therefore run low in most recent years. STRESSED means low against that period, not low income.",
    "Scores for 1995-2019 are ranked against the whole period, including later years; they are not what a reader would have seen at the time.",
    "Prices paid includes household living costs as well as farm inputs.",
    "Interest, cash rent, seed and taxes are updated by USDA once a year; the wage index has not changed since April 2025.",
    "The latest month of prices received is preliminary and is revised the following month."
  ],
  "sources": [
    "USDA NASS Quick Stats, Agricultural Prices",
    "FRED (validation only)"
  ],
  "source": "https://farmers1st.com",
  "api_docs": "https://farmers1st.com/api/",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0"
}