MPCI
Multi-Peril Crop Insurance
Federal crop insurance protecting against yield loss.
- Revenue Protection (RP)
- Enhanced Coverage (ECO)
- Supplemental (SCO)
- Area Risk Protection
- Whole Farm Revenue
16 Federal Reserve data series. 5 components. One number. The FFAI tracks U.S. agricultural financial conditions and farm loan stress, then splits the signal by sector so you know what it means for your operation.
Internally tested against national farm loan delinquency (correlation about 0.5). Treat it as an indicator, not proof. Not reviewed or endorsed by USDA, RMA, or FCIC.
01 Crop damage: call within 72 hours. Notice of loss is due within 72 hours of finding damage, and no later than 15 days after the end of the insurance period. Call us before you harvest or destroy a damaged field.
02 Dec 10: end of insurance period for corn and soybeans. Unharvested acres are no longer covered after this date.
03 Dec 1: PRF sales closing for 2027. Pasture, Rangeland, Forage coverage for hay and grazing acres. New sign-ups and changes close Dec 1.
04 Dairy Revenue Protection. The Oct-Dec 2026 quarter closed when it began. Quarters from Jan-Mar 2027 onward can still be bought, up to five quarters out. Call us to set coverage on next year’s milk.
05 Plan the 2027 SCO/ECO stack before March 15. For 2026, SCO runs from your policy’s level up to 86% and ECO from 86% to 90% or 95%, both at 80% premium subsidy. For most 2027 crops, SCO rises to 90% and ECO covers 90% to 95%. Ask us how this applies to your crops.
The archived outlook above reflects publicly available data as of April 24, 2026. It is general market information, not advice specific to your operation. Ranges were approximately 60% probability bands.
Items above are general information, not advice specific to your operation. Confirm dates for your crop and county with us. Sources: 7 CFR 457.8 and 457.113; RMA Dairy Revenue Protection fact sheet; RMA MGR-25-006 and PM-26-036 (SCO/ECO).
Live grain bids, cash prices, and market data from WI & MN elevators. Built for farmers, not traders.
When the index moves or a deadline approaches. That's it.
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⇩ Download Full Methodology PDF
The Farmers First Ag Index measures U.S. agricultural financial conditions using 16 publicly available Federal Reserve economic data seriesFree government data published by the St. Louis Fed. Same numbers the banks and USDA use. Anyone can look them up at fred.stlouisfed.org.. It tracks agricultural loan delinquencyThe percentage of farm loans that are 30+ days late on payments across all U.S. banks. When this goes up, farmers are struggling to pay their bills. When it goes down, things are good. — the percentage of farm loans 30+ days past due across all U.S. commercial banks. When this number rises, farmers are under financial stress. The FFAI gives you that signal each quarter, split by sector.
Two inputs drive the core: global soybean prices (IMF monthly series) and the Federal Funds interest rateThe rate banks charge each other overnight. When the Fed raises this, your operating loan rate goes up too. It's the master dial for borrowing costs across the whole economy.. Soybeans proxy overall crop revenue conditions. The Fed Funds rate captures debt service costsWhat it costs you to carry your loans — operating lines, equipment notes, land payments. When rates go up, every dollar you owe costs more to service. — agriculture is among the most debt-intensive industries in the U.S. economy, with production loans typically on variable rates. Note: over 2008-2026 the composite has moved with the level of the Fed Funds rate (low in 2009-2015, high in 2023), because farm loan delinquency was lowest in the years rates were high. The debt-service effect of rate cuts shows up in the Outlook component, which uses the one-year change in rates.
The model uses an expanding window: at each quarter, its parameters are re-estimated using only data available up to that point. The model specification itself (which inputs, which weights) was chosen using the full sample, so the test is not fully out-of-sample.
Model fit uses quarterly data since 2003; published scores start Q1 2008 after a warm-up window. Leave-one-out correlation with delinquency: r = 0.49. Expanding-window: r = 0.51. Both the index and delinquency change slowly from quarter to quarter, so neighbouring quarters are not independent tests and these figures overstate certainty. We do not publish a p-value for that reason. Validation is internal — this index has not been reviewed or endorsed by USDA, RMA, or FCIC.
In-sample, the model explains about 28% of delinquency variance (R² = 0.28)About 28 cents of every dollar of farm loan trouble can be explained by crop prices and interest rates. The other 72 cents is weather, trade deals, your neighbor's management decisions, and everything else. 28% from just two numbers is actually strong.. The other 72% is weather, trade policy, individual farm management, regional conditions, and crop insurance decisions. The FFAI is a conditions indicator, not a crystal ball. We state this because intellectual honesty matters more than marketing.
The composite tells you the national picture. Sub-indexes tell you which sectors. The key structural insight: corn is revenue for grain farmers but feed cost for dairy and livestock. This creates an inverse relationship between the grain and dairy sub-indexes.
The 4-quarter change in the Federal Funds rateHow much rates moved over the last year. Falling = good for farmers. Rising = trouble coming in 12-15 months. is the single strongest leading indicatorA signal that shows up BEFORE the problem does. Like seeing dark clouds before it rains. Rate hikes today show up as missed loan payments 4-5 quarters from now. of farm financial stress in our dataset. Rising rates predict higher delinquency 4-5 quarters later (r = -0.52). The current Outlook reading reflects continued easing from the 2023 rate peak — positive for farmers carrying debt over the next 12-15 months.
Corn (PMAIZMTUSDM) · Soybeans (PSOYBUSDM) · Wheat (PWHEAMTUSDM) · Crude Oil (POILWTIUSDM) · Diesel PPI (WPU057303) · Fertilizer PPI (WPU0652) · Farm Machinery PPI (WPU111) · Raw Milk PPI (WPU01610102) · Cheese PPI (PCU311513311513) · Butter PPI (WPU023201) · Cattle PPI (WPU0131) · Hog PPI (WPU013201) · Fed Funds (FEDFUNDS) · CPI (CPIAUCSL) · 10Y Treasury (GS10) · Ag Loan Delinquency (DRFAPGACBS)
All data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). No proprietary data. No estimated inputs. Inputs from Q1 2003; published scores from Q1 2008. Updated quarterly after FRED publishes complete quarter data.
Full methodology PDF includes complete sub-index formulas, weight tables, validation statistics, and limitations disclosure. Free API available for developers and media.
Independent crop insurance agents licensed across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Serving the Bemidji-to-La Crosse corridor since 2017.
Federal crop insurance protecting against yield loss.
Rainfall index for hay and grazing acres.
Central Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro and into western Wisconsin. Licensed in both states.
An index of U.S. agricultural financial conditions built from 16 Federal Reserve data series, with 5 components (composite, grain, dairy, livestock, outlook), scored 0-100. Internally tested against national farm loan delinquency (correlation about 0.5). Not reviewed or endorsed by USDA, RMA, or FCIC. Updated quarterly at farmers1st.com.
The composite tells you the national picture. The sub-indexes tell you which sectors. Above 70 = STRONG. 55-70 = FAVORABLE. 40-55 = GUARDED. Below 40 = STRESSED. Right now: grain and dairy stressed, livestock strong — same national number, very different realities depending on what you raise.
March 15 sales closing for corn, soybeans, spring grains. July 15 acreage reporting. December 1 PRF sales closing. December 10 end of insurance period for corn and soybeans. Report crop damage within 72 hours of finding it. Call early.
Rainfall index for hay and grazing. Auto payouts below your grid threshold. No adjuster. Heavily subsidized.
Bemidji south through Brainerd, St. Cloud, Twin Cities metro, east into western Wisconsin — Barron, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, St. Croix — south to La Crosse.
A free ag dashboard at agsist.com — live grain bids and cash prices from WI & MN elevators. Publicly available to all farmers, not contingent on purchasing insurance.
Actual Production History (APH) is the average of your yields over the past 4-10 years. It is the basis for your insured yield. Low years count in the average unless you elect Yield Adjustment, which can replace a low year with 60% of the T-yield (80% for qualifying beginning farmers). Call us to review your APH before the March 15 deadline.
A T-yield (transitional yield) is a county yield set by USDA’s Risk Management Agency. It fills your APH when you have fewer than four years of records: you get 65% of it with no records, 80% with one year and 90% with two. Keeping gap years from dragging down your APH is one of the most valuable things we do for clients.
A basic unit is all your acres of a crop in the county that you own or cash rent, plus a separate basic unit for each crop-share landlord. Optional units split a basic unit further by section, section equivalent or FSA farm serial number (and irrigated vs. non-irrigated), with separate production records. Enterprise units combine all acres of a crop in the county into one unit — lowest premium but least granular. Unit structure changes both premium and claim potential. We model all three before recommending.
Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) and Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) are county-level add-ons to your RP or YP policy. They pay on county-wide losses, not your farm’s own loss. For the 2026 crop year, SCO covers from your policy’s coverage level up to 86%, and ECO covers 86% to 90% or 95%; both carry an 80% premium subsidy. For most 2027 crops, SCO rises to 90% and ECO covers 90% to 95%. Call us to see how the stack works for your operation.
Generally no — March 15 is the hard sales closing deadline for corn, soybeans, and spring grains in WI and MN. After that date, coverage levels, unit structures, and optional endorsements are locked for the crop year. Acreage reporting (what you actually planted) is due July 15. Contact us well before March 15 to make any changes.
PRF (Pasture, Rangeland, Forage) uses a rainfall index to trigger automatic payments when precipitation falls below your grid’s threshold — no adjuster visit required. It is heavily subsidized and covers hay and grazing acres. In Wisconsin, alfalfa can also be insured under a forage production policy; ask which fits your acres. December 1 is the annual sales closing. Best for operations that can tolerate basis risk between the rainfall index and on-farm results.
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Chetek, Wisconsin. Serving the MN-WI corridor since 2017.
Call either of us. We pick up.
The following resources are publicly available to all farmers and are not contingent on purchasing crop insurance from Farmers First Agri Service.
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