Farmers First Agri Service 715-797-2428
UPDATED WEEKLY // FARMERS1ST.COM

THE FARMERS FIRST AG INDEX

48 instruments. 10 categories. One number. The FFAI measures how favorable conditions are for a working American farmer — and where they're headed.

What you sell. What you pay. Who's buying. What the dollar does to exports. What USDA says about supply. Where the cycle is headed. One composite score, updated every week.

FFAI QUARTERLY // 2017-2026HOVER OR TAP
USDA AG OUTLOOK FORUM · FEB 19 — Corn: 94M ac, 183 bpa, 15.76B bu, $4.20 avg · Beans: 85M ac, 53 bpa, 4.45B bu, $10.30 avg · Cattle: $240/cwt (+7%) · All-milk: $18.95/cwt · Gov't payments ~25% net cash farm income

2026 Commodity & Livestock Outlook

3 / 6 / 9 / 12 MONTH FORECAST
Corn May '26
4.36½
↓ ½¢ · Cash $3.95
Dec '26: ~$4.60
Beans May '26
11.56
↑ 7¢ · Cash $10.65
Nov '26: $11.17
All-Milk '26
18.95
↓ $2.20 from '25
III: $16.65 · IV: $15.70
Live Cattle Apr
243.43
↑ 90¢ · Cash $249
Feeders: $370

Corn

Bearish bias
3mo · Planting
$4.20 – 4.60
94M ac. $917/ac cost.
6mo · Pollination
$4.00 – 4.85
Weather mkt. 62% drought.
9mo · Harvest
$4.00 – 4.35
15.76B bu. Stocks: 1.84B.
12mo · Spring '27
$4.00 – 4.50
E15/RFS + biofuel wild cards.
USDA pegged 2026/27 at 94M acres, 183 bpa, 15.76B bu. Season avg $4.20, up 10¢. Stocks drop to 1.84B. Record exports (+44% pace) are the bright spot, but Brazil keeps rallies capped. Most WI/MN corn at or below breakeven.

Soybeans

Neutral — China + biofuel
3mo · Planting
$10.80 – 11.50
85M ac. China truce. EPA RVOs.
6mo · Fill
$10.20 – 11.75
Global deficit ~12M t. Record crush.
9mo · Harvest
$10.00 – 10.80
4.45B bu. Stocks: 355M.
12mo · Spring '27
$10.00 – 11.25
S/U tightening. 45Z + RFS.
May beans $11.56, soy oil at contract highs on biofuel. EPA sending 2026 blending quotas to WH. Crush record 2.655B bu on renewable diesel. Price into headline rallies — windows close fast.

Milk

Weak now → recovery H2
3mo · Spring flush
$17.50 – 19.00
Cheese soft. Herd: 9.568M.
6mo · Summer
$18.00 – 19.50
Herd contraction starting.
9mo · Fall
$18.50 – 20.00
Supply correction = support.
12mo · Spring '27
$19.00 – 21.00
Contraction + exports = recovery.
All-milk $18.95, down $2.20 from '25. Class III/IV spread can swing 500-cow herd $10-15K/mo. Beef-on-dairy calves $1,000-1,500/hd. DMC through 2031 — enrollment deadline Feb 26.

Fed Cattle

Bullish — cycle tights
3mo · Spring
$234 – 250
Cash $249. Supplies ↓6-7%.
6mo · Summer
$240 – 260
Grilling demand. Record since '83.
9mo · Fall
$235 – 255
Tightest supplies in 10yr cycle.
12mo · Spring '27
$230 – 250
Cycle peak then stabilize.
The bright spot. USDA: fed cattle avg $240/cwt (+7%), feeders $364 (+13%). Herd 86.2M, lowest since 1951. Slaughter ↓6.6%. Cash: $249. Receipts up 39% since 2020.

01Protect downside on grain. Most WI/MN at or below breakeven. RP at higher coverage. OBBBA raised premium subsidies to 80%.

02Don't cap upside on beans. Biofuel policy, China truce, Trump-Xi April — could spike prices.

03Dairy: DRP is non-negotiable. 85-90% coverage on 60-70% of quarterly milk. DMC by Feb 26.

04Cattle: manage the volatility. Record prices but 15-20% swings. LRP to set floor.

05Price into rallies. Bean windows on China headlines, corn on summer weather. Both close fast.

06Gov't payments = 25% of net cash farm income. FBA ($44.36/ac corn) expected late Feb.

USDA AG OUTLOOK FORUM FEB 19 '26 · WASDE FEB 10 · CBOT/CME · FARM CREDIT

AgSist — Free Ag Dashboard

Live grain bids, cash prices, and market data from WI & MN elevators. Built for farmers, not traders.

Open AgSist →

FFAI WEEKLY + INSURANCE DEADLINES

When the index moves or a deadline approaches. That's it.

FFAI WEEKLY // FEBRUARY 19, 2026

The Wind Changed Direction. The Tide Hasn't Turned Yet.

FFAI at 53.6, up from 48.0 last quarter — the strongest single-period move since 2020. Leading indicators improving across the board. Lagging indicators haven't caught up yet.

S&P up 100%+ since Oct '22. Net farm income down 22%. Corn down 48% from highs. Median farm income: negative $1,498. Government payments $44.3B — highest since 2020. Gold nearly tripled to $4,945.

Six Cycle Forces

Dollar / Export Demand BULLISH

DXY down 13% to 98.7. Corn exports raised to record 3.3B bu. 10% dollar drop historically precedes 15-20% grain price improvement.

Gold / Ag Commodities BULLISH 12-24MO

Gold $4,945, silver $85.65. Gap to grain prices widest on record. Gold ATH historically precedes ag commodity rallies 12-24 months out.

Baltic Dry / Trade Flow CONSTRUCTIVE

BDI 2,019, up 135% YoY. Sustained above 1,800 confirms grain trade acceleration.

Brazil-China / Export Share WATCH

Real 5.33/USD, record 180 MMT Brazil soy. Weakening USD narrows their advantage.

WASDE / Price Direction TURNING

Feb WASDE cut corn stocks 100M bu — bullish surprise. 39.2% US in drought, expanding to D3 Extreme.

Equipment / Profitability BOTTOMING

Deere ATH $593, raised guidance, called 2026 "cycle bottom." Titan Machinery $14.30 still distressed.

Action Items

The wind changed. The tide hasn't.

Position for the turn. Don't bet the farm on the timing.

FFAI METHODOLOGY

48 instruments, 10 weighted categories: Row Crops (20%), Input Costs (15%), Equipment (10%), Grain Trade (8%), Macro (10%), Metals (7%), Livestock (5%), Global Demand (10%), USDA Supply (10%), Farm Structure (5%). Scored 0-100 via proprietary 52-week percentile ranking with momentum and seasonal adjustments.

Sources: CBOT/CME, NYSE/NASDAQ, USDA WASDE, Export Sales, Crop Progress, Drought Monitor, Baltic Exchange, Fed, BLS. Updated weekly at farmers1st.com.

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Services

Crop Insurance & Agronomy

Independent agents licensed across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Serving the Bemidji-to-La Crosse corridor since 2017.

MPCI

Multi-Peril Crop Insurance

Federal crop insurance protecting against yield loss.

  • Revenue Protection (RP)
  • Enhanced Coverage (ECO)
  • Supplemental (SCO)
  • Area Risk Protection
  • Whole Farm Revenue
PRF

Pasture & Forage Insurance

Rainfall index for hay and grazing acres.

  • Choose coverage periods
  • Grid-based payouts
  • Subsidized premiums
  • No adjuster needed
590

Nutrient Management Plans

NRCS-compliant plans by our CCA.

  • Comprehensive soil sampling
  • Manure & fertilizer recs
  • Phosphorus Index calcs
  • Annual updates & records

Deadlines

Crop Insurance Calendar

MAR 15
Sales closing — corn, beans, spring grains
JUL 15
Acreage reporting
SEP 30
Winter wheat closing
DEC 1
PRF pasture signup

Territory

Bemidji to La Crosse

Central Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro and into western Wisconsin. Licensed in both states.


FAQ

Common Questions

What is the Farmers First Ag Index?

Proprietary weekly composite index published at farmers1st.com. 48 instruments, 10 categories, scored 0-100. Free, every week.

How do I use the FFAI?

Above 60 = FAVORABLE (lock margins, expand). 45-54 = GUARDED (sell into strength, lock inputs, max insurance). Below 45 = STRESSED (preserve cash, minimize debt).

Crop insurance deadline in Wisconsin?

March 15 for corn, soybeans, spring grains. July 15 acreage reporting. December 1 PRF pasture. Call early.

What is PRF pasture insurance?

Rainfall index for hay and grazing. Auto payouts below your grid threshold. No adjuster. Heavily subsidized.

What territory do you cover?

Bemidji south through Brainerd, St. Cloud, Twin Cities metro, east into western Wisconsin — Barron, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, St. Croix — south to La Crosse.

What is AgSist?

Our free ag dashboard at agsist.com — live grain bids and cash prices from WI & MN elevators.


Contact

Your Local Agents

Chetek, Wisconsin. Serving the MN-WI corridor since 2017.

March 15 Sales Closing Is Coming

Get your numbers run before the deadline.

715-797-2428

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