MPCI
Multi-Peril Crop Insurance
Federal crop insurance protecting against yield loss.
- Revenue Protection (RP)
- Enhanced Coverage (ECO)
- Supplemental (SCO)
- Area Risk Protection
- Whole Farm Revenue
What U.S. farms get paid, against what they pay. The FFAI compares USDA’s national prices received with prices paid for everything farms buy, then splits it into crops, livestock and dairy so you know what it means for your operation.
Tested before launch: over 30 years, when this ratio rose or fell, inflation-adjusted USDA net farm income moved the same way that year. Prices only — yields and government payments are not in it. Not reviewed or endorsed by USDA, RMA, or FCIC.
01 Crop damage: call within 72 hours. Notice of loss is due within 72 hours of finding damage, and no later than 15 days after the end of the insurance period. Call us before you harvest or destroy a damaged field.
02 Dec 10: end of insurance period for corn and soybeans. Unharvested acres are no longer covered after this date.
03 Dec 1: PRF sales closing for 2027. Pasture, Rangeland, Forage coverage for hay and grazing acres. New sign-ups and changes close Dec 1.
04 Dairy Revenue Protection. The Oct-Dec 2026 quarter closed when it began. Quarters from Jan-Mar 2027 onward can still be bought, up to five quarters out. Call us to set coverage on next year’s milk.
05 Plan the 2027 SCO/ECO stack before March 15. For 2026, SCO runs from your policy’s level up to 86% and ECO from 86% to 90% or 95%, both at 80% premium subsidy. For most 2027 crops, SCO rises to 90% and ECO covers 90% to 95%. Ask us how this applies to your crops.
The archived outlook above reflects publicly available data as of April 24, 2026. It is general market information, not advice specific to your operation. Ranges were approximately 60% probability bands.
Items above are general information, not advice specific to your operation. Confirm dates for your crop and county with us. Sources: 7 CFR 457.8 and 457.113; RMA Dairy Revenue Protection fact sheet; RMA MGR-25-006 and PM-26-036 (SCO/ECO).
Live grain bids, cash prices, and market data from WI & MN elevators. Built for farmers, not traders.
When the index moves or a deadline approaches. That's it.
Email handled by Formspree. See our privacy policy.
The FFAI compares the prices U.S. farms receive for what they sell with the prices they pay: feed, fuel, fertilizer, chemicals, seed, machinery, interest, taxes, wages, rent, and household living costs. Both sides are national price indexes from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), with 2011 = 100. For all farms, the ratio matches USDA’s published ratio of prices received to prices paid within about one point (USDA rounds it to a whole number).
The score is the share of quarters from 1995 to 2019 whose ratio was at or below this quarter’s, from 0 to 100. A score of 10 means only 10 of those 100 quarters were as low or lower. Because the comparison period is fixed, a published score never moves because of the method; it moves only if USDA revises its data. 70 and up is STRONG, 55–70 FAVORABLE, 40–55 GUARDED, under 40 STRESSED.
Read STRESSED as “low against 1995–2019”, not “low income”. The ratio drifted down about 1.2 points a year from 1995 to 2019, consistent with rising yields, so recent quarters score low against that period even in good income years. The panel also compares the ratio with its own average of the previous 10 years, which takes out that drift.
A quarter is the average of its three months, and it is published only when USDA has released all three months on both sides. USDA’s latest month of prices received is preliminary and revised the following month. Scores for 1995–2019 are ranked against the whole period, including later years, so they are not what a reader would have seen at the time.
Crops: all crop prices received, against prices paid by crop farms. Livestock: meat animal prices received (cattle, hogs, sheep), against prices paid by animal farms. Dairy: milk and dairy prices received, against prices paid by animal farms, because USDA does not publish a dairy-only cost index. The animal-farm cost index includes feeder cattle and replacement cows bought, which have risen far faster than feed: from Q4 2019 to Q2 2026, feeder cattle prices paid rose 191% and feed 8.6%. So the dairy score is pulled down by cattle prices a milk-only farm may not pay. Against feed costs alone, dairy would score 26 for Q2 2026, not 0. The sector scores were not tested and are descriptive.
Before running any test, we wrote down the tests and the pass rules and committed them to the public code (commit 163cc4b, Oct 7, 2026, 01:13 UTC), so anyone can check they were not changed after the results came in. The target is USDA net farm income, adjusted for inflation. The tests compare year-over-year changes in the all-farms ratio with year-over-year changes in income:
| Test | Result | Pass? |
|---|---|---|
| Changes in the ratio move with changes in net farm income | r = – over – years | – |
| Same, with federal farm subsidies taken out of income | r = – | – |
| Estimates this year’s income change better than “no change” and “same as last year” | error – vs – and –, over – test years | – |
Two versions of the score were tested: this one, and one measured against the previous ten years. Both passed all three tests, and by the rule set in advance the simpler one ships. After that run, we set the engine to keep this version, so a later run cannot switch it.
What the tests do and do not show. They show that when the ratio rises or falls over a year, inflation-adjusted net farm income tends to move the same way in the same year. That is partly by construction: net farm income is sales minus expenses, and both are priced with the same USDA prices. It is not a forecast, and the 0–100 score level was not tested against the income level. The latest year of net farm income is a USDA forecast and can be revised.
It counts prices only. Yields, how much farms sold and government payments are not in it. A low ratio today is not the same squeeze as the same ratio in 1995.
It is not a loan-stress forecast. Quarter to quarter, it shows no relationship with national farm loan delinquency (correlation about zero), so we make no claim about it.
Some costs move rarely. USDA updates interest, cash rent, seed and taxes once a year, in January. The wage index has not changed since April 2025, after USDA ended its Farm Labor Survey. The page marks an item “not updated” when it did not change.
USDA NASS Quick Stats, Agricultural Prices: national indexes of prices received and prices paid (2011 = 100), monthly, from January 1995; farm-gate prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, milk, steers and heifers, hogs and alfalfa hay. Validation only: FRED series B1448C1A027NBEA (net farm income), L312041A027NBEA (federal agricultural subsidies) and CPIAUCSL (inflation). The engine is public: engine/ffai_v4.py. Free data: FFAI API. Validation is internal — not reviewed or endorsed by USDA, RMA, or FCIC.
FFAI v3, published through Q2 2026, was built from Federal Reserve series. It was retired in October 2026 after testing showed its composite mostly followed the Fed Funds interest rate rather than farm conditions. Its data stays unchanged at /api/v3/; its methodology PDF is kept for the record.
Independent crop insurance agents licensed across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Serving the Bemidji-to-La Crosse corridor since 2017.
Federal crop insurance protecting against yield loss.
Rainfall index for hay and grazing acres.
Central Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro and into western Wisconsin. Licensed in both states.
A quarterly national index of what U.S. farms are paid for what they sell, against what they pay for what they buy, from USDA price data. Scored 0-100 against 1995-2019, with crop, livestock and dairy scores. Tested before launch against USDA net farm income. Not reviewed or endorsed by USDA, RMA, or FCIC. Updated quarterly at farmers1st.com.
The all-farms score tells you whether U.S. farm prices are high or low against farm costs, compared with 1995-2019. The crop, livestock and dairy scores tell you which side of agriculture is carrying the load. 70 and up = STRONG. 55-70 = FAVORABLE. 40-55 = GUARDED. Below 40 = STRESSED. It counts prices only, so your own yields and contracts decide where your farm sits. Because the ratio has trended down since 1995, recent scores run low: STRESSED means prices are low against costs compared with 1995-2019, not that farm income is low.
March 15 sales closing for corn, soybeans, spring grains. July 15 acreage reporting. December 1 PRF sales closing. December 10 end of insurance period for corn and soybeans. Report crop damage within 72 hours of finding it. Call early.
Rainfall index for hay and grazing. Auto payouts below your grid threshold. No adjuster. Heavily subsidized.
Bemidji south through Brainerd, St. Cloud, Twin Cities metro, east into western Wisconsin — Barron, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, St. Croix — south to La Crosse.
A free ag dashboard at agsist.com — live grain bids and cash prices from WI & MN elevators. Publicly available to all farmers, not contingent on purchasing insurance.
Actual Production History (APH) is the average of your yields over the past 4-10 years. It is the basis for your insured yield. Low years count in the average unless you elect Yield Adjustment, which can replace a low year with 60% of the T-yield (80% for qualifying beginning farmers). Call us to review your APH before the March 15 deadline.
A T-yield (transitional yield) is a county yield set by USDA’s Risk Management Agency. It fills your APH when you have fewer than four years of records: you get 65% of it with no records, 80% with one year and 90% with two. Keeping gap years from dragging down your APH is one of the most valuable things we do for clients.
A basic unit is all your acres of a crop in the county that you own or cash rent, plus a separate basic unit for each crop-share landlord. Optional units split a basic unit further by section, section equivalent or FSA farm serial number (and irrigated vs. non-irrigated), with separate production records. Enterprise units combine all acres of a crop in the county into one unit — lowest premium but least granular. Unit structure changes both premium and claim potential. We model all three before recommending.
Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) and Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) are county-level add-ons to your RP or YP policy. They pay on county-wide losses, not your farm’s own loss. For the 2026 crop year, SCO covers from your policy’s coverage level up to 86%, and ECO covers 86% to 90% or 95%; both carry an 80% premium subsidy. For most 2027 crops, SCO rises to 90% and ECO covers 90% to 95%. Call us to see how the stack works for your operation.
Generally no — March 15 is the hard sales closing deadline for corn, soybeans, and spring grains in WI and MN. After that date, coverage levels, unit structures, and optional endorsements are locked for the crop year. Acreage reporting (what you actually planted) is due July 15. Contact us well before March 15 to make any changes.
PRF (Pasture, Rangeland, Forage) uses a rainfall index to trigger automatic payments when precipitation falls below your grid’s threshold — no adjuster visit required. It is heavily subsidized and covers hay and grazing acres. In Wisconsin, alfalfa can also be insured under a forage production policy; ask which fits your acres. December 1 is the annual sales closing. Best for operations that can tolerate basis risk between the rainfall index and on-farm results.
Prefer not to call? Send us your question and we'll get back to you within one business day.
Chetek, Wisconsin. Serving the MN-WI corridor since 2017.
Call either of us. We pick up.
The following resources are publicly available to all farmers and are not contingent on purchasing crop insurance from Farmers First Agri Service.
Ag Spraying
Find Pilots