MPCI
Multi-Peril Crop Insurance
Federal crop insurance protecting against yield loss.
- Revenue Protection (RP)
- Enhanced Coverage (ECO)
- Supplemental (SCO)
- Area Risk Protection
- Whole Farm Revenue
16 Federal Reserve series. 5 components. Internally cross-validated. The FFAI measures U.S. agricultural financial conditions and predicts farm loan stress — then decomposes the signal by sector so you know what it means for your operation.
Internally cross-validated against USDA national ag loan delinquency at r = 0.49 (p < 0.000001). Not reviewed or endorsed by USDA, RMA, or FCIC. Tested against every quarter since 2003.
Market information and coverage suggestions below are general observations based on publicly available data as of April 24, 2026. They are not advice specific to your operation. Ranges represent approximately 60% probability bands — tail risk extends beyond. Contact us for guidance specific to your situation.
01 July 15: acreage reporting deadline. Report all planted acres by July 15 to maintain crop insurance coverage. Late or inaccurate reporting can void your policy. Call us with questions before the deadline.
02 Grain coverage already locked, but track new-crop levels. Dec '26 corn at $4.82 anchors RP revenue. Most WI/MN corn at or near breakeven at $4.20 SAP. ECO/SCO subsidies enhanced for 2026 — review your stack with us.
03 Beans: ride the biofuel story. Soy oil near contract highs on Iran-driven crude demand. RVO finalization is the next catalyst. Don't cap upside on rallies but expect headline volatility.
04 Dairy DRP Q3 window open now. April-June is the buying period for July-September milk endorsements. 85-90% coverage on 60-70% of milk, matched to your Class III/IV utilization. March III actual was $16.16 — floor likely in. Call us to evaluate structure.
05 Cattle: lock floors at the peak. LRP sets a floor without giving up upside. COF data confirms tight supply continues, but heifer retention is starting. Consider taking some Q3-Q4 revenue off the table on strength.
06 Watch input costs into fall. Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran war pressure are firming fertilizer markets. If you typically book fall application early, expect to pay current pricing or higher. Government program income (ARC, ECO/SCO) remains a meaningful share of 2026 cash flow — ask us about eligibility.
Live grain bids, cash prices, and market data from WI & MN elevators. Built for farmers, not traders.
When the index moves or a deadline approaches. That's it.
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⇩ Download Full Methodology PDF
The Farmers First Ag Index measures U.S. agricultural financial conditions using 16 publicly available Federal Reserve economic data seriesFree government data published by the St. Louis Fed. Same numbers the banks and USDA use. Anyone can look them up at fred.stlouisfed.org.. It predicts the direction and magnitude of agricultural loan delinquencyThe percentage of farm loans that are 30+ days late on payments across all U.S. banks. When this goes up, farmers are struggling to pay their bills. When it goes down, things are good. — the percentage of farm loans 30+ days past due across all U.S. commercial banks. When this number rises, farmers are under financial stress. The FFAI gives you that signal in real time, decomposed by sector.
Two inputs drive the validated core: soybean futures prices and the Federal Funds interest rateThe rate banks charge each other overnight. When the Fed raises this, your operating loan rate goes up too. It's the master dial for borrowing costs across the whole economy.. Soybeans proxy overall crop revenue conditions. The Fed Funds rate captures debt service costsWhat it costs you to carry your loans — operating lines, equipment notes, land payments. When rates go up, every dollar you owe costs more to service. — agriculture is among the most debt-intensive industries in the U.S. economy, with production loans typically on variable rates.
The model uses expanding-window regressionImagine you're standing in 2015 making a prediction. You can only use data from 2003-2014. Then in 2016, you add one more year and predict again. This proves the model works in real time, not just in hindsight.: at each quarter, it trains only on data available up to that point, preventing look-ahead biasCheating by using future information to make a "prediction." Like saying you predicted the 2012 drought after it already happened. Our model can't do this because it only sees past data at each step..
Tested against every quarter since 2003 (91 observations). Leave-one-out cross-validationTake out one quarter, build the model with the other 90, then predict the one you removed. Do that 91 times. If the model still works after 91 tests, it's not a fluke.: r = 0.49 (p < 0.000001)The "p-value" is the chance this result is just random luck. p < 0.000001 means less than 1 in a million odds this is a coincidence.. Expanding-window out-of-sample: r = 0.51 (p < 0.00001). Survives Bonferroni correctionWhen you test a lot of models, some will look good by pure chance. Bonferroni makes the test harder to pass. We tested ~50 models. Our result still passes after this penalty. for 50 multiple comparisons. 73% regime accuracy. Validation is internal — this index has not been reviewed or endorsed by USDA, RMA, or FCIC.
The model explains 28% of delinquency variance (R² = 0.28)About 28 cents of every dollar of farm loan trouble can be explained by crop prices and interest rates. The other 72 cents is weather, trade deals, your neighbor's management decisions, and everything else. 28% from just two numbers is actually strong.. The other 72% is weather, trade policy, individual farm management, regional conditions, and crop insurance decisions. The FFAI is a conditions indicator, not a crystal ball. We state this because intellectual honesty matters more than marketing.
The composite tells you the national picture. Sub-indexes tell you which sectors. The key structural insight: corn is revenue for grain farmers but feed cost for dairy and livestock. This creates a validated inverse correlation (r = -0.45)When one goes up, the other goes down. An r of -0.45 means they move opposite about half the time. Expensive corn is great if you're selling it, terrible if you're feeding it. between the grain and dairy sub-indexes.
The 4-quarter change in the Federal Funds rateHow much rates moved over the last year. Falling = good for farmers. Rising = trouble coming in 12-15 months. is the single strongest leading indicatorA signal that shows up BEFORE the problem does. Like seeing dark clouds before it rains. Rate hikes today show up as missed loan payments 4-5 quarters from now. of farm financial stress in our dataset. Rising rates predict higher delinquency 4-5 quarters later (r = -0.52). The current Outlook reading reflects continued easing from the 2023 rate peak — positive for farmers carrying debt over the next 12-15 months.
Corn (PMAIZMTUSDM) · Soybeans (PSOYBUSDM) · Wheat (PWHEAMTUSDM) · Crude Oil (POILWTIUSDM) · Diesel PPI (WPU057303) · Fertilizer PPI (WPU0652) · Farm Machinery PPI (WPU111) · Raw Milk PPI (WPU01610102) · Cheese PPI (PCU311513311513) · Butter PPI (WPU023201) · Cattle PPI (WPU0131) · Hog PPI (WPU013201) · Fed Funds (FEDFUNDS) · CPI (CPIAUCSL) · 10Y Treasury (GS10) · Ag Loan Delinquency (DRFAPGACBS)
All data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). No proprietary data. No estimated inputs. History: Q1 2003 – present. Updated quarterly after FRED publishes complete quarter data.
Full methodology PDF includes complete sub-index formulas, weight tables, validation statistics, and limitations disclosure. Free API available for developers and media.
Independent crop insurance agents licensed across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Serving the Bemidji-to-La Crosse corridor since 2017.
Federal crop insurance protecting against yield loss.
Rainfall index for hay and grazing acres.
Central Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro and into western Wisconsin. Licensed in both states.
Internally cross-validated index of U.S. agricultural financial conditions. 16 Federal Reserve series, 5 components (composite, grain, dairy, livestock, outlook), scored 0-100. Cross-validated against USDA ag loan delinquency at r = 0.49. Not reviewed or endorsed by USDA, RMA, or FCIC. Updated quarterly at farmers1st.com.
The composite tells you the national picture. The sub-indexes tell you which sectors. Above 70 = STRONG. 55-70 = FAVORABLE. 40-55 = GUARDED. Below 40 = STRESSED. Right now: grain and dairy stressed, livestock strong — same national number, very different realities depending on what you raise.
March 15 for corn, soybeans, spring grains. July 15 acreage reporting. December 1 PRF pasture. Call early.
Rainfall index for hay and grazing. Auto payouts below your grid threshold. No adjuster. Heavily subsidized.
Bemidji south through Brainerd, St. Cloud, Twin Cities metro, east into western Wisconsin — Barron, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, St. Croix — south to La Crosse.
A free ag dashboard at agsist.com — live grain bids and cash prices from WI & MN elevators. Publicly available to all farmers, not contingent on purchasing insurance.
Actual Production History (APH) is the average of your crop yields over the past 4-10 years. It's the basis for your insured yield. Low-yield or zero years are included in the average — which is why T-yields matter for gap years. Call us to review your APH history before the March 15 deadline.
A T-yield (transitional yield) is assigned by USDA for years with no production history — for example, new fields or years you didn't farm a particular crop. T-yields are typically 65-75% of the county average. Preventing T-years from dragging down your APH is one of the most valuable things we do for clients.
Basic units (BU) separate coverage by FSA farm number and landlord. Optional units (OU) separate coverage by field, offering more granular protection but at higher cost. Enterprise units (EU) combine all acres of a crop across the county into one unit — lowest premium but least granular. Unit structure dramatically affects both premium and claim potential. We model all three before recommending.
Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) is a county-level add-on that covers the gap between your MPCI policy (typically 70-85%) and 90% or 95% of county expected revenue. It pays when county-wide losses exceed the threshold — not individual farm losses. ECO is area-based, federally subsidized, and pairs well with Revenue Protection. Call us for current subsidy rates and whether it makes sense for your operation.
Generally no — March 15 is the hard sales closing deadline for corn, soybeans, and spring grains in WI and MN. After that date, coverage levels, unit structures, and optional endorsements are locked for the crop year. Acreage reporting (what you actually planted) is due July 15. Contact us well before March 15 to make any changes.
PRF (Pasture, Rangeland, Forage) uses a rainfall index to trigger automatic payments when precipitation falls below your grid's threshold — no adjuster visit required. It's heavily subsidized and covers hay, alfalfa, and grazing acres that traditional crop insurance doesn't. December 1 is the annual signup deadline. Best for operations that can tolerate basis risk between the rainfall index and on-farm results.
Prefer not to call? Send us your question and we'll get back to you within one business day.
Chetek, Wisconsin. Serving the MN-WI corridor since 2017.
Report all planted acres on time to protect your coverage.
The following resources are publicly available to all farmers and are not contingent on purchasing crop insurance from Farmers First Agri Service.
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